Thursday, March 31, 2022

Economic Crisis Part 2 - The Build up

 Quote “We are not responsible and we are Irresponsible”! unquote  

The Buildup of The Crisis


Recent turnover of events has warranted further listings as part 2 in deals with true and actual reasons led to the present crisis, Part 1 dealt with further deepening of crisis, in both search for ideas to alleviate whole crisis in long run. 

Part 2

“We are not responsible” and “It is not our mistake” are the post electoral political rhetoric we have been hearing so long and still hearing ever since of forming of new governments even after few years of the electoral verdicts. Though the people are fed-up of this political rhetoric ever since independence, yet they will go to the polling booths cast their precious votes with lots of expectation for anticipated change of government or attitude of the politicians both which never happened to date.  If the politicians wanted to make the people believe, they are ready to bring even devil and evil to the society, and wear sarong and perform summersault, as you all are doing now for the grabbing of public riling power. That is how you all brought up the insurgency of ruling community itself to the level of manifesting the devilishness twice, brought up the hated and divided society within the Sri Lanka, brought up the terrorism to the magnitude they grew, all that devasted the steady economic growth, that was ignored for so long, (this is discussed further down) and you all will never learn because you all strongly believe that Sri Lankan public can be fooled every time  

11.  As described in 4. Above unwarranted tax cut amounting to Rs.600 billion annually which is 30% of the total income, led the International Rating Agencies to downgrade Sri Lanka at the first hand closing the door for raising money through CBSL Treasury Bonds selling, which had been the main mode of Foreign Currency compiling until very recently.

12.  As such without addressing the issue of inability raise funds as explained in 11. continued burrowing for higher rates to repay the loans and imports while the income reduced rapidly. 

13.  As this practice adamantly continued foreign exchange reserves rapidly reduced, you all decided autocratically* to cut the imports drastically to preserve the Dollars, to meet our debt repayment obligations which harmed our economy further because 80% of what we import are of service for our export, that as well reduced further our dollar earnings, precipitating our dependence on the dollar further.

14.   When the Covid19 appeared in 2020, didn’t take enough measures to safeguard our country from contamination from foreigners such as of Indians as textile workers, Ukrainians as tourists and Chinese for projects; people who are infected with covid don’t show any symptoms during the initial 1-2 weeks, as such  thousands of Chinese who returned after celebrating their New Year entered the country unhindered and spread the virus further, and the Boralasgamuwa Cluster of Covid19 infection was not revealed to the country until the Delta variant is detected in many local populations, all these created situation that warranted closing the country as lockdown for longer period, as longer as 7 months which otherwise could have been very shortened and effective prevention  (2 phases of 21days maximum)

    

15.   Through above 14 imposed 24/7 curfew for 7months covering entire country brought the country to a screeching halt which in turn resulted halting of most productions, constructions, cash flow businesses, 4 million job losses etc.  and thereby bringing our economy to a screeching halt – that completely destroyed our economy.

 

16.  Above 15 resulted in severe shortfall of cash flow and resulted in further loss of income in addition to the above stated in 4. and brought the government to a state of being unable to pay the salaries of government employees meet other necessary commitments of the government.

 

17.  As such drastic situation was created for money printing and performed 24 hours 7 days unqualified money printing of sweeping 2 trillion, named Sri Lankan rupees.

 

18.  Above 17.  resulted in devaluation of the currency, increasing the demand for the Dollar, exponential rise in the price of consumer goods, inflation and shortages.

 

19.  Instead of finding a solution for the above, in order to save foreign currency for debt servicing, autocratically* decided to totally ban the chemical fertilizers and go for improperly managed and produced carbonic fertilizers.

 

20.  This resulted in a telling 40% reduction of harvest in all export and consumption crops and   created loss to farmers/plantations losing their income, supply chain and availability of products in the market, resulting in food shortages, further hike of food prices and the creation of a rampaging black market.

 

21.  Compounded the escalating prices of the commodities by letting all the price control mechanisms off the hook and that resulted in huge increase of the price of all good.

 

22.  Despite all these Economic commotions going on, tried to get some shortcut income into the government coffers, increased the taxes of all petroleum products and gas, causing transport cost and all products and commodities to further escalate the prices to unmanageable level. (Another misfired autocratic action)

All these are fateful immediate mismanaged contributary factors for today’s state of affairs: Steady Economic Growth of a country cannot be defined or framed up into a five- or six-year period, it requires at least 10-year visualized strategy if not best 25 to 30 years well defined plan and strategy. Even though the politicians well aware of this indispensable criterion for the Steady Economic Growth, they masquerade it for power greediness, by five-year popularism theories and short-sighted inappropriate priorities. As it is usually from political clowns understandable, but a Responsible Governor of the Central Bank coming out to frame the total Economic Crisis within a five-year period, he is just a “political rookadaya, (Political Puppet) who is totally incapable of enlisting or researching as it done in this listing, into the actual reasons of the present collective crisis that has totally crippled down the earnings and day to day survival of the ordinary people at present.

23.   By appointing above explained incapable person as Central Bank Governor who is       incapable of analytical enlisting of reasons you all are again trying to masquerade actual crisis brought about by debt over debts over the prolonged years, and politicalize it for personal gains, which is further worsening and deepening the crisis.

 

24.  you all are trying to use the Central Bank of Sri Lanka as an electioneering tool, as explained in above 23. by    portraying   the actual prolonged crisis as of short term one and trying to market it to the voters

 

25.  you all connived against previous Central Bank Governor a world renowned Economist   Deshamanya Prof. W D Lakshman and forced him to render his resignation as Governor of Central Bank to implant the “political rookadaya, (Political Puppet) who is just a company Accountant who doesn’t know anything about long-term strategies for Steady Economic Growth of a nation, this is worse than bombarding the Central Bank, because when bombardment take place there will be only physical damage of life and property, but not the know how soft technology like in above.

 

26.  4. 7. 23, 24, and 25 of above listings are well monitored by international lenders and investors and had collectively damaged the foreign currency remittances as well as Sri Lanka has been further downgraded the rating and curtailed foreign currency undertakings, compelling you all for swapping over swap of loans for further higher interest rate further damaging Sri Lankan Economy.

27.        Whatever actions you all took on your own without consulting a reliable economist as for mitigation of ensued crisis backfired on you, what is known as autocratic misadventure / mismanagement 

28.        Daily (10 to13) hours of   Power-cut due to Dollar and Fuel crisis as well buckling down the economic revival through limiting the cash flow by various means.   

A democratic sovereign nation imperatively requires continuity in its strategies and plans, for steady economic growth despite the ruling bunch is changed through elections, that is why government officers and executives are permanent and pensionable so that to carry out the single policy of steady economic growth for long but unfortunately, or rather foolishly permanent executives have become political - familial  pawns for craving into the economy of Sri Lanka, along with politicians who made them as just assistants of the clowns themselves.

Present CBSL governor shall visit his father, if he is alive (or to his grave) to know about what is an acute disease and what is a chronic disease and how an acute disease can become an incurable chronic disease. What politicians shall realize is go-on begging globally in search of loans from Uganda to Bangladesh only will dress the chronic wound for further begging.

As explained in 25. Above You all can’t claim patriotic for just eradicating the terrorism alone that you all created by own actions, because you all failed to take Sri Lanka into steady economic growth pathway, even after the ending of 3 decades of war, rather involved yourself into portraying you all as heroes of conquerors of another nation, all by using unabatedly burrowed Dollars in billions.  You all could have created factories for intensively consumed items such as paper cement etc. as means of increasing the Sri Lankan coffer and save foreign currency which could have elevated your all into true heroes and patriotic, not by lavish spending for propaganda of begged Dollars. If you all are true patriotic – involve in consultation and consensus with relevant field specialists, consultants and scientists so that steady economic growth road map can be laid; you all are autocratic- not ready to listen  anybody because you all want and use entire governing period and the government machinery for propaganda to seek another term – wasting the government resources – coffers – and burrowed currency just for “Showy Developments” alone while plundering  as you all have been doing in all along, which is also responsible for present situation.  A direct and clear consequence of failing or rather unable to think due to a disease known as propaganda-philia to achieve meaningful income to the government coffers either by direct income or by saving foreign currency through local enterprising – despite annually ever-increasing budget deficit between export and import running into many billions.

 By the way you all started/upgrade cattle farming projects in order to achieve self-sufficiency milk and milk products, good thing to begin with, but as soon as you all politicalized the activities Sri Lanka Central Bank by creating the Dollar Crisis – the Dairy Industry you all dreamt of is now buckling down – rather inhumanely – for lack of quality cattle food – is now worsening – those milked and milking cows – are being starving to death. There is no need for any other example for the way you all are carrying on since you all obtained 69 million gullible votes.   

 

  Recommendations for Revival

1.     Postpone all the large-scale showy constructions and undertakings

2.     Reduce the number of cabinet members and their expenditure

3.     Lay plans to increase the livelihood of individual families but do not involve voter attractive grants that will further pressurize the treasury**, rather than giving cash relieve to selected families – ensure uninterrupted fuel/gas supply so that nearly 6million self-reliant and self-employed who have been lost their income first due to 7months lockdown of the country and then by the severe shortage of fuel/Gas. The plain cash relieve decision is just another propaganda mode than any real purpose. The 6 million livelihood affected people include fishermen, small scale animal and crop farming, transport, retail boutiques, food cater- restaurants etc.        

4.     Invest in industries and factories for intensive consumables that can save foreign exchange initially in small scale, which can be promoted for large scale after the complete revival

Quote "Inflation doesn't increase if money is printed; rather it increases only if Inflation is printed". Unquote - Finance Minister of Sri Lanka

Inflation is put in print here – down in recommendations 5 and 6.

5.     Do not ** pressurize the treasury – if you all decide to go on with the outright grant of Rs. 5000.00 to selected families either through burrowed finance or through your favorite money printing for propaganda both will end up in further crisis to the treasury as well as to already stuttering Economy. When you do the unqualified bulk printing to meet the grants – inflation and depreciation of Rupee value sets in overnight, and by the time your bureaucracy delivers the money to the beneficiary the value money will be only less than Rs.2500.00 since the depreciation is more than 50% during this economic commotion and the cash follow is one way only where as

6.      When you decide to divert this grant amount to ensure uninterrupted fuel/gas supply all business listed in 3 of recommendations will thrive back and multiway cashflow is ensured and hence rupee value would stagnate to certain extend.

7.     Do not ** pressurize the treasury – further by recruiting or appointing for newer employments in any government or semi government sectors until revival – that is at least until you all are able to ensure fuel and coal supply towards uninterrupted power supply to the public.  

8.     Ensuring uninterrupted electrical power supply to public is an important criterion for early recovery for further strengthening the Economy.    

 

I pray the god for the merry-way of life not only for politicians and rulers but for the ordinary civilians as well.

 

Economic Crisis - The Build Up

 

Quote “We are not responsible and we are Irresponsible”! unquote  

The Buildup of The Crisis 

Part 1 (March 17th 2022)
Part 2 (April 1st 2022) and Part 3 (April 9th 2022)  

Recent turnover of events has warranted further listings as part 2 in deals with true and actual reasons led to the present crisis, Part 1 dealt with further deepening of crisis, in both search for ideas to alleviate whole crisis in long run.

 

Every day, week and month there has been long queues for essential commodities of one the other, each family member is pushed into queues for different items, not a single member of a family cannot involve or turn towards earnings of monthly or daily, a situation worser than a lockdown against Covid19 spread. The worst part of this miserable scenario is staying in a queue never ensures the commodity yearned for while waiting painstakingly very long hours is bought for a price, all ends up in price less precious time is lost without allowing the public to seek alternative for the scarcity cited item. These all happens amidst pandemic a new variant of Omicron Covid19 is rapidly spreading in South East Asia, all through drastically wrongful notion of any vaccinated population is free of contracting a new variant infection. Thus, all politicians stop giving false hope to the public, as “the commodity they are yearning for is released to the market today” and propelling the public to the queues.  This political rhetoric lies “the commodity they are yearning for is released to the market today” is the only reason forming long queues long hours in expectation, rather than the actual scarcity of essential commodity, because the people know item will not be available at any cost, as it has happened to the milk powder, they knew it will not be available at any cost and they don’t form a queue, it is so simple as it is. This doesn’t any way mean liquid milk or milk powder is not an essential commodity, both are essential items for the healthy life of the public in general. In contrary the uneducated morons at the helm are trying to prove that the milk and milk powders are luxurious item by allowing the scarcity for so long.             

The same people who once prioritized excavate port building for hectic ship transport and business, are now hilariously asking the ships/oil tankers to anchor at the sea until they find enough Dollars to dock and unload the tons of fuel and cooking gas critically needed by the country, compound the crisis further as both items are just not essential items just for consumption but backbone of the economy to sustain even in critically challenging times.  

The baffling part and bizarre is that the readiness of this government to pay the delay charges for the tankers and ships anchoring within Sri Lankan waters, the charges not in Sri Lankan Rupees, but in US Dollars 18000/= per day and the ships are allowed to stay adjacent two to three weeks, and not days despite claiming that acute shortage for US Dollars.

Why the government has not tried to curb the anchoring the tankers/ships within Sri Lankan waters for prolonged period, and wasting cash in foreign exchange as surcharge despite you all claim tightly strapped of foreign exchange. Additionally, these huge vessels carrying many thousand tons of very dangerous fuel and cooking gas, along with other essential commodities anchored in the sea until those ships are docked for unloading, if any accident occur the Sri Lankan government will be forced to pay whole value for the entire Tank/ship load even without those commodities landing within port itself. Any layman can calculate the heavily compounded risk and bizarre of this and suspect foul-play in prolonging delay the docking of the ship for unloading.

We all can understand the reason for all these is rapidly draining down Foreign Exchange or Dollars in the Central Bank reserves, but whose fault it has been – all of who formed the government alternatively since independence in 1948. Central Bank of Sri Lanka does not have a Forensic Probe facility, all the politicians do know very well of this and dispute and disrupt the Central Bank activities to unchallengeable magnitude, especially during and after the war. This is situation still prevails despite, the commission inquired into the Central Bank Bond Scam emphasized establishing a Forensic Probe Facility and recommended inquiring into bond issuance of 2008 to 2015, and the reply hit back to square one there is “no Forensic Probe facility’!!  

This is a fundamental reason for gradual depletion of Forex from reserves, what made the compounded rapid unavailability of Forex as both should have been considered as different entities in managing foreign exchange properly. Rapidly depleting Forex reserve set in the panic of past misdeeds and panic handling brought about the rapid unavailability of Forex!

What are the misadventure handlings brought about the rapid unavailability of Forex!

1.     Enforced change of foreign currency into Sri Lankan Rupees, according to the rule all incoming foreign currency should be converted to Sri Lanka Rupees within the same month effective from 2021October 23rd. As soon as this rule came to effect more than 50% of the foreign remittances have been diverted to off shore banking, another 25% stopped remitting to any Sri Lankan bank from foreign countries, within 45 days of this new rule precious 500 billion Dollars have been lost to Sri Lanka, the rule is still intact will continue to drain.  

This is not a panic-stricken idea, but a henchmen idea for collection of commission for each dollar converted to Sri Lankan Rupees from private exchangers. The banking sectors have categorically refused to issue the dollars needed for importing of essential commodities, since the banks could not accumulate the Dollars due to this rule of Enforced Change.  

Most of the foreign currency remitters – skilled foreign employees do convert their part of the foreign currency without any instructions or demand to meet their immediate family members’ need, now what has happened is, everything said by this government not trusted by anyone, and demand to convert has pushed them totally to reject, change their foreign currency off shore to Sri Lankan rupees send it to beneficiaries, thus Sri Lanka lost another colossal accumulated amount of foreign currency.

Therefore, immediate change of entire foreign currency rule should be withdrawn, attractiveness and trust should be restored for foreign currency remitters and all foreign currency incoming should be considered as Reserve Foreign Currency after spontaneous convert which always happen, and do not try to balance the Money Printed through changed money, it will rapidly weaken the Sri Lankan Rupees. Reserve Foreign Currency will not allow rupee to fall down if not rapidly as of now.

 

2.     The moron advisers to President/ or the president himself as he claimed in his address to Nation, pushed the Central Bank to peg the dollars, tried to defend artificially the indefensible, and allowed further 4 billion dollars public money is to be drained off. Lately realized the suicidal blunder and restored dollar to float, better late than never decision welcomed.

3.     Though the welcoming decision to allow Dollar value to float of late, the above 1 and 2 have coupled drastically during this peg period to drag down the rupees with rapidity.

  

4.     Lost state revenue of by Rs. 600 billion (rupees) per year when implemented the, tax cuts which were never demanded by already rich beneficiaries, perhaps as a bribe to those Business Magnets and silence who were responsible for the change of government in 2015, and to silence them towards the selfish “mismanagement” foreseen. Quote - "I foresaw the coming crisis" Unquote from address to the Nation 18/03/2022

You all are trying to balance this annual colossal loss Rs. 600 billion through enforced conversion of hard-earned foreign currency of skilled workers who work under very appalling conditions in foreign countries leaving their loved ones inshore who are not covered by Employees Trust Fund or Employees Provident Funds as well for their older age support unlike the inland workers. You have made the tax cut rich beneficiaries to ride on the back of Skilled foreign employees who has already done many sacrifices as for earning their dearly foreign currency, who has no any other benefit for older age living. Thus 1. Above and 4 are very idiotic actions compounded the present situation have to be revoked to increase the revenues and reserves.           

5.     By trying to fix the Dollar artificially to low level as explained in 2., allowed the informal banking short-circuiting Sri Lanka, and further drained of 2.5 billion USD (US Dollars)- formal banking have to be attractive concessionally for remitters investors for cash and foreign currency to flow for a state.

6.     The Most drastic and somewhat hilarious is Central Bank increasing the foreign currency deposit from10% to 25% from Banking sector, after closing all the avenues for collection and accumulation of foreign currency.  Reference 1, 2 and 5 above, though 2 have been revived now, the damage had been already done via breaking the trust of the banking sector for foreign remittances. This action also contributed to mistrust, and when flow had reduced, you are trying to balance it by just increasing deposit without researching into the reasons for reduced flow.

7.     Appointed selfish, arrogant, incompetent and corrupt political henchman and stooges to the highest positions in State Agencies with unwarranted highest renumeration, only to create pandemonium among the public and helping them to use the crisis as an opportunity for black marketing essential commodities including Gas and fuels.

8.     In order to accommodate 7, and to pay all the excessive political appointees in almost all the state sectors involved in unqualified printing of money and created the further depreciation of rupees against the Dollar. Every foreign currency penny incoming only qualify the money printing as per appreciation of the currency type.

9.     Sri Lanka is desperately dependent on hospitality business, and the frequently allowed scarcity of cooking gas has heavily burdened the industry, especially the small-scale ventures, and has been further aggravated slowly closing down. Wildlife Reserves and adjacent surrounding areas are heavily involved in hospitality ventures have started to use firewood in big way for the frequent lack of electricity, fuel, and cooking gas, this will disturb the biological balance of the wildlife and forest reserves as well. Further burden will be added as urban hospitality industry as well resorting to firewood burning

10.  Though you have foreseen the crisis, instead of trying to avert the looming crisis, through No. 7 above inciting the public, to be provocative and manufacture and claim a National Security Issue. The 1000CC motorbike rally organized from Katpitty to Anuradhapura a week ago amidst the heavy fuel crisis is part of this nostalgic strategy, of provoking the public, but thankfully police have acted very wisely unlike April 2021 Easter Sunday calamity.

 Quote “Opposition is trying to topple the government by various means” Prime Minister

unquote,

   Presently there is no government to look into the predicaments and care of the public, the Dollar has already toppled it and the so-called rulers are viewing the whole episode of predicaments of the public as revenge for electoral verdict in 2015 (Refer No. 4 of above) and 2019 electoral verdict is not for Good Governance!

Part 2 

April 5th 2022 

“We are not responsible” and “It is not our mistake” are the post electoral political rhetoric we have been hearing so long and still hearing ever since of forming of new governments even after few years of the electoral verdicts. Though the people are fed-up of this political rhetoric ever since independence, yet they will go to the polling booths cast their precious votes with lots of expectation for anticipated change of government or attitude of the politicians both which never happened to date.  If the politicians wanted to make the people believe, they are ready to bring even devil and evil to the society, and wear sarong and perform summersault, as you all are doing now for the grabbing of public riling power. That is how you all brought up the insurgency of ruling community itself to the level of manifesting the devilishness twice, brought up the hated and divided society within the Sri Lanka, brought up the terrorism to the magnitude they grew, all that devasted the steady economic growth, that was ignored for so long, (this is discussed further down) and you all will never learn because you all strongly believe that Sri Lankan public can be fooled every time  

11.  As described in 4. Above unwarranted tax cut amounting to Rs.600 billion annually which is 30% of the total income, led the International Rating Agencies to downgrade Sri Lanka at the first hand closing the door for raising money through CBSL Treasury Bonds selling, which had been the main mode of Foreign Currency compiling until very recently.

12.  As such without addressing the issue of inability raise funds as explained in 11. continued burrowing for higher rates to repay the loans and imports while the income reduced rapidly. 

13.  As this practice adamantly continued foreign exchange reserves rapidly reduced, you all decided autocratically* to cut the imports drastically to preserve the Dollars, to meet our debt repayment obligations which harmed our economy further because 80% of what we import are of service for our export, that as well reduced further our dollar earnings, precipitating our dependence on the dollar further.

14.   When the covid appeared in 2020, didn’t take enough measures to safeguard our country from contamination from foreigners such as of Indians as textile workers, Ukrainians as tourists and Chinese for projects; people who are infected with covid don’t show any symptoms during the initial 1-2 weeks, as such  thousands of Chinese who returned after celebrating their New Year entered the country unhindered and spread the virus further, and the Boralasgamuwa Cluster of Covid 19 infection was not revealed to the country until the Delta variant is detected in many local populations, all these created situation that warranted closing the country as lockdown for longer period, as longer as 7 months which otherwise could have been very shortened and effective prevention  (2 phases of 21days maximum)

    

15.   Through above 14 imposed 24/7 curfew for 7months covering entire country brought the country to a screeching halt which in turn resulted halting of most productions, constructions, cash flow businesses, 4 million job losses etc.  and thereby bringing our economy to a screeching halt – that completely destroyed our economy.

 

16.  Above 15 resulted in severe shortfall of cash flow and resulted in further loss of income in addition to the above stated in 4. and brought the government to a state of being unable to pay the salaries of government employees meet other necessary commitments of the government.

 

17.  As such drastic situation was created for money printing and performed 24 hours 7 days unqualified money printing of sweeping 2 trillion, named Sri Lankan rupees.

 

18.  Above 17.  resulted in devaluation of the currency, increasing the demand for the Dollar, exponential rise in the price of consumer goods, inflation and shortages.

 

19.  Instead of finding a solution for the above, in order to save foreign currency for debt servicing, autocratically* decided to totally ban the chemical fertilizers and go for improperly managed and produced carbonic fertilizers.

 

20.  This resulted in a telling 40% reduction of harvest in all export and consumption crops and   created loss to farmers/plantations losing their income, supply chain and availability of products in the market, resulting in food shortages, further hike of food prices and the creation of a rampaging black market.

 

21.  Compounded the escalating prices of the commodities by letting all the price control mechanisms off the hook and that resulted in huge increase of the price of all good.

 

22.  Despite all these Economic commotions going on, tried to get some shortcut income into the government coffers, increased the taxes of all petroleum products and gas, causing transport cost and all products and commodities to further escalate the prices to unmanageable level. (Another misfired autocratic action)

All these are fateful immediate mismanaged contributary factors for today’s state of affairs: Steady Economic Growth of a country cannot be defined or framed up into a five- or six-year period, it requires at least 10-year visualized strategy if not best 25 to 30 years well defined plan and strategy. Even though the politicians well aware of this indispensable criterion for the Steady Economic Growth, they masquerade it for power greediness, by five-year popularism theories and short-sighted inappropriate priorities. As it is usually from political clowns understandable, but a Responsible Governor of the Central Bank coming out to frame the total Economic Crisis within a five-year period, he is just a “political rookadaya, (Political Puppet) who is totally incapable of enlisting or researching as it done in this listing, into the actual reasons of the present collective crisis that has totally crippled down the earnings and day to day survival of the ordinary people at present.

23.   By appointing above explained incapable person as Central Bank Governor who is       incapable of analytical enlisting of reasons you all are again trying to masquerade actual crisis brought about by debt over debts over the prolonged years, and politicalize it for personal gains, which is further worsening and deepening the crisis.

 

24.  you all are trying to use the Central Bank of Sri Lanka as an electioneering tool, as explained in above 23. by    portraying   the actual prolonged crisis as of short term one and trying to market it to the voters

 

25.  you all connived against previous Central Bank Governor a world renowned Economist   Deshamanya Prof. W D Lakshman and forced him to render his resignation as Governor of Central Bank to implant the “political rookadaya, (Political Puppet) who is just a company Accountant who doesn’t know anything about long-term strategies for Steady Economic Growth of a nation, this is worse than bombarding the Central Bank, because when bombardment take place there will be only physical damage of life and property, but not the know how soft technology like in above.

 

26.  4. 7. 23, 24, and 25 of above listings are well monitored by international lenders and investors and had collectively damaged the foreign currency remittances as well as Sri Lanka has been further downgraded the rating and curtailed foreign currency undertakings, compelling you all for swapping over swap of loans for further higher interest rate further damaging Sri Lankan Economy.

27.        * Whatever actions you all took on your own without consulting a reliable economist as for mitigation of ensued crisis backfired on you, what is known as autocratic misadventure / mismanagement.  

28.        Daily (10 to13) hours of   Power-cut due to Dollar and Fuel crisis as well buckling down the economic revival through limiting the cash flow by various means.   

A democratic sovereign nation imperatively requires continuity in its strategies and plans, for steady economic growth despite the ruling bunch is changed through elections, that is why government officers and executives are permanent and pensionable so that to carry out the single policy of steady economic growth for long but unfortunately, or rather foolishly permanent executives have become political - familial  pawns for craving into the economy of Sri Lanka, along with politicians who made them as just assistants of the clowns themselves.

Present CBSL governor shall visit his father, if he is alive (or to his grave) to know about what is an acute disease and what is a chronic disease and how an acute disease can become an incurable chronic disease. What politicians shall realize is go-on begging globally in search of loans from Uganda to Bangladesh only will dress the chronic wound for further begging.

As explained in 25. Above You all can’t claim patriotic for just eradicating the terrorism alone that you all created by own actions, because you all failed to take Sri Lanka into steady economic growth pathway, even after the ending of 3 decades of war, rather involved yourself into portraying you all as heroes of conquerors of another nation, all by using unabatedly burrowed Dollars in billions.  You all could have created factories for intensively consumed items such as paper cement etc. as means of increasing the Sri Lankan coffer and save foreign currency which could have elevated your all into true heroes and patriotic, not by lavish spending for propaganda of begged Dollars. If you all are true patriotic – involve in consultation and consensus with relevant field specialists, consultants and scientists so that steady economic growth road map can be laid; you all are autocratic- not ready to listen  anybody because you all want and use entire governing period and the government machinery for propaganda to seek another term – wasting the government resources – coffers – and burrowed currency just for “Showy Developments” alone while plundering  as you all have been doing in all along, which is also responsible for present situation.  A direct and clear consequence of failing or rather unable to think due to a disease known as propaganda-philia to achieve meaningful income to the government coffers either by direct income or by saving foreign currency through local enterprising – despite annually ever-increasing budget deficit between export and import running into many billions.

 By the way you all started/upgrade cattle farming projects in order to achieve self-sufficiency milk and milk products, good thing to begin with, but as soon as you all politicalized the activities Sri Lanka Central Bank by creating the Dollar Crisis – the Dairy Industry you all dreamt of is now buckling down – rather inhumanely – for lack of quality cattle food – is now worsening – those milked and milking cows – are being starving to death. There is no need for any other example for the way you all are carrying on since you all obtained 69 million gullible votes.   

 

  Recommendations for Revival

1.     Postpone all the large-scale showy constructions and undertakings

2.     Reduce the number of cabinet members and their expenditure

3.     Lay plans to increase the livelihood of individual families but do not involve voter attractive grants that will further pressurize the treasury**, rather than giving cash relieve to selected families – ensure uninterrupted fuel/gas supply so that nearly 6million self-reliant and self-employed who have been lost their income first due to 7months lockdown of the country and then by the severe shortage of fuel/Gas. The plain cash relieve decision is just another propaganda mode than any real purpose. The 6 million livelihood affected people include fishermen, small scale animal and crop farming, transport, retail boutiques, food cater- restaurants etc.        

4.     Invest in industries and factories for intensive consumables that can save foreign exchange initially in small scale, which can be promoted for large scale after the complete revival

Quote "Inflation doesn't increase if money is printed; rather it increases only if Inflation is printed". Unquote - Finance Minister of Sri Lanka

Inflation is put in print here – down in recommendations 5 and 6.

5.     Do not ** pressurize the treasury if you all decide to go on with the outright grant of Rs. 5000.00 to selected families either through burrowed finance or through your favorite money printing for propaganda both will end up in further crisis to the treasury as well as to already stuttering Economy. When you do the unqualified bulk printing to meet the grants – inflation and depreciation of Rupee value sets in overnight, and by the time your bureaucracy delivers the money to the beneficiary the value money will be only less than Rs.2500.00 since the depreciation is more than 50% during this economic commotion and the cash follow is one way only where as

6.      When you decide to divert this grant amount to ensure uninterrupted fuel/gas supply all business listed in 3 of recommendations will thrive back and multiway cashflow is ensured and hence rupee value would stagnate to certain extend.

7.     Do not ** pressurize the treasury further by recruiting or appointing for newer employments in any government or semi government sectors until revival – that is at least until you all are able to ensure fuel and coal supply towards uninterrupted power supply to the public.  

8.     Ensuring uninterrupted electrical power supply to public is an important criterion for early recovery for further strengthening the Economy.    

 

I pray the god for the merry-way of life not only for politicians and rulers but for the ordinary civilians as well.

  Quote “We are not responsible and we are Irresponsible”! unquote  

Part 3  (April 9th 2022)

How to revive from – Economic Crisis   that is Created

Reasoning &Recommendations

 

 

One of few reasons for the prolonging short supply Petrol and Diesel, LP-gas and in turn continuing long hours of electricity interruption is, closing down of the Sapugaskanda Crude Oil Refinery in which gasoline (petrol), diesel fuel, asphalt base, fuel oils, heating oil, kerosene, liquefied petroleum gas and petroleum naphtha are produced from each barrel of 159 litter crude oil that expands to 170 liters while on process includes above products listedSapugaskanda Crude Oil Refinery has a capacity of 50,000 barrels per steam day amounting to 7900cubic liters(7900x1000liters). The present government for bizarre reason, stopped refining crude oil which fulfilled the 30% to 33% of national daily requirement of the Petrol, Diesel and LP gas. Apart from above it also supplied the residual oil needed by the Sapugaskanda Electricity Power Generation, and it has been brought to a halt as well.  But the government foolishly decided to import 100% - the entire total need of the nation amidst the worsening dollar crisis and lost income generated by numerous by products from the bottom residue on completion of refining process of each barrel (please refer information graphic below).  


Another higher capacity crude oil refinery project initiated in 2014 by Mahinda Rajapaksha was abandoned by the Ranil Wickremasinghe government in 2015 as soon as they came to power and as a result, the estimated cost of the project has skyrocketed from $ 95 million in 2014to $ 2.5 billion in 2020. Anyhow Ranil Wickremasinghe government in 2019 initiated an Export Processing Zone refinery with a Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) of $ 3.85 billion from Oman and Singapore, with an aim of generating $ 7 billion worth of export revenue per annum when fully operational, but was later abandoned as well due to various controversies.  Therefore, the hasty decision closure of Sapugaskanda Crude Oil Refinery is influenced by political rivalry, that fail to consider the public utility value when considering the fact that this refinery consists of 65 tanks for crude oil storage; hence all other reasons set become pretext.  Any lay man will understand easily that crude oil importation is much cheaper than, 100% all crude oil breakdown products directly, though 70% of country’s requirement has to be imported as purified products.         

The political parties coming to power after a general election has been in vicious habit of discarding the plans and ongoing implemented projects judgmentally, due to the brutal mania of propaganda, just to gain petty political gain, right at the beginning itself without realizing that such negative action will heavily burden our treasury – utter wastage of public tax payers’ money. Ruthless part of this process is going for fresh burrowing for newer plan and implementation – further exerting pressure on the treasury. Since 2005 every aspect of the government undertaking is calculated maniacally for propaganda rather than for real purpose of smooth functioning, still continuing, This maniac habit should be addressed through legally /constitutionally –recent  classic example for above is delaying the bailout relieve application to International Monetary Fund – even after the crisis has worsened - another attempt to fool the public, just to portray that they are wiser than opposition, masquerading as wise, acting autocratically – has brought out the  public to protest all over the country in frustration,  that they couldn’t meet their daily essentials needs.

A thief always think others are also thief, won’t believe what opposition say and CBSL as well critically lacked a visionary adviser as to, when to go for bailout call to IMF, - when these selfish-reliant rulers finally called for IMF relieve all too late – now economic crisis has coupled with political crisis – unless this political crisis – settled ensured to form a steady trustable government, IMF or International donors relieve will be only a distant dream than anything tangible. Another example for burdening the treasury just by change of government –  A proposed $480 million Millennium Challenge Corporation  compact aid for 5 years was unnecessarily made into a political issue by then opposition party led by Mahinda Rajapaksha  (2019), used it as usually with utter lies  to portray themselves are only saviors of this nation; it is very appropriate to mention here the entire  history of wastage of human resources, time in years and monetarily.

 Since 2016 Sri Lankan experts set in motion the proposals for 1. Poverty alleviation through Socio-Economic growth 2. Improving the bus/train transport of workforce with removing the traffic congestions of the Western   Province and 3. Pollution Reduction.  The Millennium Challenge Corporation  found all these   proposals very  attractive and decided to draft Sri Lanka as well as the 57th country for the MCC aid program in 2017 April 15th,   in turn US Congress accepted the proposals on September 2018 for financing  and the donor implementer – The Board  of Directors of MCC approved the outright grant of 480 million US Dollars on 25th April 2019.

Raja Pakashas & Company formed the government, though had criticized the MCC project for electioneering purposes, the amount offered by the MCC project has been mouthwatering for the Raja company, became indecisive - neither indicated yes nor rejected the acceptance of funds to Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), which forms partnerships only with countries, who have capabilities to

                   1. Lead the process of designing and implementing development projects according local need priorities 

                           2. Satisfactory International ratings of policy performance of beneficiary

 3. Cost benefit analysis and rigorous impact evaluation once the project is completed

All three above are very imperative in any planning and implementation of projects, regardless of origin of funding - these criteria that are common to all projects, but Raja Family hilariously found these criteria as national security threat for maniac of propaganda.

MCC also emphasizes on

            1.Transparency in aid fund handling through Good Governance,

             2.Economic Freedom and

3.Investments within their own citizens,

Again, another three criteria common to any international funding aid agency, and all 6 criteria are equivocally hated by Raja Family because, all these criteria are laid to prevent beneficiaries mishandling the aid funds; that is why these selfish rulers always disregard the International Funding Agencies and fervently prefers the individual countries for loan requirements that allow discrete handling. Though the new rulers awaited the US aid package, of $480 million (Sri Lankan Rs. 89 billion at that time) MCC Board of Directors Cancelled the Sri Lankan engagement on 15th December 2020, – all those strenuous efforts of Sri Lankan experts and US officials became utterly waste of precious time in years and monetary wise, and the Raja Family ran towards Bangladesh for loan begging, not for the same project but for something else! Though Raja Family shouted of security threat against the MCC funded project, the Raja family well and truly hysterically exposed themselves’ attitude towards fund handlings to USA and its Congress. Endless greed Mahinda Rajapaksha did this despite being Prime Minister 3 times and executive president for 15 long years. Now USA has enlisted and published the total wealth of our Diaspora Rulers, worth running into many billion.     

Hence, any project involving foreign countries or an international agency once it is set in motion for implementation should not be used for electioneering purpose, it is non-ethical and cruel on human resource internationally, and it should be addressed through election laws;  If there is any  issue of security threat of international aid projects, any patriotic could file a writ petition against it, instead of using it to deceive gullible mass in large scale for publicity, as did by Raja Family.           

These kind of lunatic burrowing without any fiscal management strategies and recommendations should be prevented constitutionally. Burrowing from any individual countries should be considered as a national security threat, burrowing should be preferred from recognized International Funding Agency, such as World Bank, IMF Asian Development Bank etc. Projects and Programs should be planned, to attract the International outright grant aid agencies, rather than projects for burrowing, since our country is just a developing nation only.        

Even well-developed countries Japan, France etc.  involve in burrowing for check and balance, but they manage the fiscal strategies well and control over the burrowing.   

At this moment I welcome the move to call back Retired. Senior Deputy Governor, Nandalal Weerasinghe as Governor of Central Bank Sri Lanka (CBSL) - I strongly believe his 29 years earlier stint with CBSL would confer him the strength and confidence to overcome the political clowns’ unjustifiable demands – that would harm the integrity and objectives of CBSL. Congratulations Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe.      

All who at the helm, the Parliament and the President through consensus consultation shall revoke the 20th amendment which paved way for autocratic rule and installed insecurity for the permanent pensionable executives of the Government sector, 19th Amendment should be further improvised and reenacted as quickly as possible to ensure good governance. At this time of crisis, no political party shall seek political advantage and demand for a General Election or a Presidential Election which will further strangulate the treasury by monetary demand.

Ruling party parliament members are trying to paint public protests as of politically motivated, which clearly manifests that they have not understood the pathetic day to day struggle of all civilians alike to survive; you all should realize that you cannot resolve the problem of the people facing today by portraying the public outburst as of political and organizing counter protest to support yourself hilariously. One of the government member went on to accuse the government officials and the 1979 constitution for the present crisis, - you all have lived with devil, devilishly plundered the country and enjoyed the privileges provided by the same the constitution for 43 years, despite repeated public outcry to change it for the same long years – when public erupted – accusing the government official for the status qua – you all are irresponsible to allow them to be part of your government –  and to the  present crisis of the present magnitude.          

         

This time around

Tamil and Sinhala new year unique to Sri Lanka

Not with same aplomb and passionate, which is otherwise

Accompany plenty of auspicious rituals and exchange

Food and edibles of weeklong preparation –

There is nothing for weeklong preparation

And no exchange for the people to be happy